Episodes
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Let's be honest.
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
Thursday Feb 29, 2024
There is a lack of substance, and basic honesty in politics in the UK. Perhaps this comes from the search for a tactical edge with elections looming. Perhaps because few have an underlying compass by which to articulate simply, directly and honestly the context in which action needs to happen to secure national renewal. Economic for sure, but more and more a sense of needing democratic renewal.
Neither Sunak or Starmer impress, and unable to project leadership both seem slaves to events over which they have little control and on which their words have little impact.
The Protocol remains unfinished business. The DUP is trying to say there is no border in the Irish Sea with most other politicians happy or accepting that as fact and sparing the blushes of the leader of the DUP by drawing attention that there is merely a fig leaf covering his hubris. And none of the parties in NI seem willing to acknowledge that the 'normal' fiscal irresponsibility can't continue.
And meanwhile the mainstream media acts as if it completes with X to amplify unfounded opinion that seeks only affirmation from others in simply ignoring the herd of elephants in the public space.
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
Electoral tsunami?
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
Thursday Jan 18, 2024
This is the year of elections around the world. While America and Europe may see populism gain, in the UK it seems there will be little change but the party label. It isn’t certain how any of this pans out. There will be little time for the outworking of one election to be adsorbed before the next.
2024 will be an a fascinating year, offering a number of late night viewings for the election obsessed.
Meanwhile the Northern Ireland Protocol remains and is due for full rigorous implementation by 2025.
And, the Northern Ireland public sector isn't working.
Thursday Jul 27, 2023
Losing is the new Winning
Thursday Jul 27, 2023
Thursday Jul 27, 2023
The local Government elections in May and the more recent Westminster by-elections in England leave considerable challenges for political leaders in Northern Ireland and nationally, with wins and losses not being entirely clear cut. Everyone making the best of thread-bare endorsement.
Meanwhile, into the public arena the political bogeyman that is Nigel Farage cuts through Orwellian double speak, gets straight to the point, and defenestrates institutional hubris like no other. While denying he has any future electoral ambitions, Farage remains the known unknown of British politics.
The most positive thing that could be said of the underwhelming Windsor Framework impact on the Northern Ireland Protocol was "An Improvement", damning with faint praise, and even that isn't justified on close reading of the House of Lords Report.
The unworkable Protocol is due to begin its rigorous implemented from early October in its slightly less unworkable 2.0 manifestation. Will it be ready, steady, chaos? Another known unknown.
Despite the pressure on the DUP, at this point it is hard to see how any offer by Sunak would be in any way trusted.
Political parties have from now to the conference season to work out the platform that will define their pitch for the General Election due to be called sometime before the end of next year. Despite the polls, assume nothing.
Thursday May 04, 2023
The House of Sturgeon falls.
Thursday May 04, 2023
Thursday May 04, 2023
As the Coronation marks the continuity of the House of Windsor and the stability and sense of place for the UK, in Scotland the House of Sturgeon is in freefall. Remarkable history all around.
Meanwhile elections excite, or don't. Difficult to read too much into local election results because very often they reflect actual local issues that concern local people. That does not mean hours of political analysis on what it all might mean.
In Northern Ireland the South Belfast bubble will be seeking any reason on why there might be more pressure on the DUP to enable Stormont to get up and running, but little in the real world to suggest that is likely anytime soon.
Finally, is Chris Heaton-Harris the worst Secretary of State ever?
Thursday Mar 16, 2023
Greater expectations
Thursday Mar 16, 2023
Thursday Mar 16, 2023
Perhaps expecting Gary Lineker to have listened to there recent "The Rest is History" podcast, in which he is financially invested, is too much to expect. Her might have learned something, though perhaps it is all a bit above his head.
The St Patrick's political festival is in full swing in the USA, to where our expenses-paid politicians (and the rest) seem to have decamped.
It is from Washington DC that we learn of the DUP's current view on what it might think of the Sunak Framework, couched in such generalities and uncertainty demanding clarifications. This seems to make clear(-ish) that the Framework (a rehash of the NI Protocol that simply embeds the grace periods that would have lasted forever outside EU control - can't be having that) does not meet the DUP seven tests, even though those seven tests were themselves vague.
With the seven tests not met, what then of the Panel? What exactly is it advising on? How does 'the public' make representation to the Panel when the general sense is that by composition and playbook this will likely deliver whatever the DUP leader requires to 'keep the show on the road', and when the public doesn't have the expert views the DUP has gathered to give guidance on to what extent the seven tests have been missed, and what options the DUP might consider going forward?
In so many aspects of public discourse, those that want to be lauded for offering their guidance and leadership really do need to step up a gear. Perhaps numbed to low expectations, they won't be disappointed with themselves. They shouldn't be too surprised if the public expects more.
Thursday Jan 12, 2023
No bridges nor breakthroughs
Thursday Jan 12, 2023
Thursday Jan 12, 2023
While Harry burns his bridges and asks the family to jump into the void, the UK and EU seem to imagine that if the word 'breakthrough' is used no-one will look too much at the detail. In both instances the truth is out there, somewhere, just not as real as you are asked to imagine.
It isn't clear who the audiences for the outbreak of truths is trying to convince of the veracity to their accounts. Perhaps it doesn't matter. Politics is increasingly conducted in the moment of the last Tweet rather than the reality of life for the people impacted. No wonder politicians struggle to cut through and populists that feed on concerns and fears gain from this - nationalism feeds of division and shifting the blame onto Westminster and offering milk and honey if only....
While a General Election may be two years away, local elections will bring back political uncertainty and pressures on main parties.
For Sunak and Starmer it will be a battle of energising their core vote, as few others might be inspired to be bothered to go to the voting booth.
In Northern Ireland we may get two for one; an Assembly election along with the necessary Local Government poll. There will be some who might hope that would boost the UUP which performs well at local government level, largely due to long-standing personal votes. But the European Election should have put paid to that idea - although well-liked, the UUP's Danny Kennedy crashed in the European poll. The DUP will not fear an election. Everyone else will see it as another chance to beat up on the DUP without offering anything much.
Plus ca change.
Friday Oct 14, 2022
What’s the big deal?
Friday Oct 14, 2022
Friday Oct 14, 2022
There is a date at the end of October when the Northern Ireland Secretary of State will call an election for the NI Assembly, or find some imaginative way to avoid national law and kick the can down the line.
The issue as to whether an Assembly will be possible after an election is centred on whether or not an 'deal' is made between the EU and the UK Govt that either a) is equal to the intent of the NI Protocol Bill (not currently stalled in the House of Lords, to some people's disappointment) and/or satisfies the DUP 'seven tests'.
Of course pressure will be on the DUP to accept ANY deal, which will be portrayed as 'the best deal ever'. There will be also voices demanding the the DUP accept the deal and to get the Assembly up and running so that the other Parties in the Executive can pretend to hand out money which in truth adds up to no more than an extra layer of bureaucracy between Westminster and getting support to households.
The context is one of febrile politics around Westminster where Conservative MPs are acting like a herd of cattle with BSE.
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
Time and tides.
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
Thursday Sep 22, 2022
This episode takes in a range of issues. Perhaps unconsciously it looks at how patience and focus on straightforward goals can reduce the greatest challenges to achievable goals.
We look at the Queen's role from Empire changed to Commonwealth. How will Liz Truss fare in reversing the technocratic aversion to change and salami slicing the economy towards growth and a dynamic economy that frees people and business to be their best. How might that be reflected in relationships with the EU and approach to the added cost of the NI Protocol to everyday prices, approach to Northern Ireland political Party whining, or more widely in the world.
On the world stage, perhaps an example of how not to focus without the ability to see through with delivery we have Russia and how China might have played a canny game of removing a rival - though with unforeseen downsides of placing a focus on how China is not so different in its nationalistic view of its neighbourhood.
A time of challenges; navigating through seas of change.
Friday Jul 29, 2022
Not the silly season.
Friday Jul 29, 2022
Friday Jul 29, 2022
It is a not so silly summer season, with the Conservatives looking for a new leader and the background of high energy costs, strikes, and war. No it is not the 1970s. In particular we don't seem to have the political figures that exude confidence and big ideas on the world stage, nationally nor, noting the death of David Trimble, locally.
Thursday May 12, 2022
Stormont in mothballs
Thursday May 12, 2022
Thursday May 12, 2022
Seems like we are heading into a period with Stormont being put in storage, mothballed for now, putting on hold all those amazing ideas MLAs have been imagining to solve all the problems of the world. Waiting, of course, for the greatest fanfare of all will be Robin Swann's plan to do what has not been done in twenty years of devolution; to end waiting lists and create the best working NHS anywhere in the UK. Sadly we will have to wait.
First on the agenda is the Northern Ireland Protocol, that constitutional and economic thorn in the side of unionism, that (not before time) the DUP has decided takes priority over all else.
In this podcast we discuss how the election was a bit dull, what might happen next, and the barriers that currently exist which might derail the Government from doing much as has been its way for months and months past. Until the EU is faced down on its absolutist legalistic hubris, and common sense prevails, Brexit will not be complete, and the Good Friday Agreement will be dead.