politicalOD

Leadership goes AWOL

In Northern Ireland it is forwards into the past with Mike Nesbitt; apparently set to be the next leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, again. In Westminster Starmer has made a stuttering start to his premiership, while Sunak and Farage seem to have gone AWOL as opposition.

Seems nowhere is greatly blessed with coherent leadership, which lends itself to the disaffection with politicians; not something that will be quickly reversed on present trajectories.

It has been a long wet and miserable summer, but in the words of Matt the cartoonist: "Keir Starmer was on the TV. Things will get worse before they get even worse." Labour's messaging shining through.

no alarms & no surprises

This election seems to be one where no-one wants to make an error and most parties make the case for ‘steady as it goes”.

Policy has been overwhelmed by trivia and side-shows. The considerable challenges ahead barely mentioned. All this in a context where in elections in India, in Turkey, in Europe, old parties and Governments that have believed themselves to be ‘popular’ have suffered at the hands of a volatile and uneasy electorate.

The candidates that seek to inspire, all too often don’t. In the UK, Labour will win an election without any great surge of enthusiasm from the voters, and in NI the two biggest parties seem to be hoping no-one notices their more recent failures. July the 5th brings who knows what.

This podcast was recorded before the Trump/Biden debate. Another day... 

The shotgun election.

A private financial briefing summed up Wednesday's announcement of an election on 4th July as Rishi Sunak looking at the whisky and revolver, and reaching for the whisky. Unlikely the outcome of the upcoming election for the Conservative Party will be a clean shot, it will be much more messy. 

This episode look broadly at the electoral landscape, and that both the Conservatives and Labour have one eye on Reform (Nigel Farage or not). In Scotland and in Wales the national runes seem similar. The Conservatives, the SNP and Welsh Labour have all been in power for a long time, the electorate is weary. 

In Northern Ireland the DUP and Sinn Fein have been the parties longest at the top, though all parties have their challenges. Perhaps the DUP and Sinn Fein are saved by the hapless nature of the others that would deign to knock them off their perch.

The underlying mood of change may not be one of enthusiasm for any of the alternatives. The consequences of Brexit are still working their way along the political pathways. Our political leaders have nowhere to hide, no-one to blame. 

This election may just be a last gasp, a final flourish of bravado from the current establishment.

The electorate is restless. Change is coming. 

Gone, gone, going?

At the start of the year the most vulnerable political leader in the British Isles might have been Rishi Sunak. Today, Leo Varadkar is gone and best forgotten, Jeffery Donaldson is gone (no comment), and there is Rishi in his Adidas Sambas still sitting around in the big chair. 

Change happens and events shape change. Reform may not be ready to take seats, but it certainly able to make its mark on the political landscape, perhaps not in 2024. For the DUP it means hanging on to incumbency as the best offer to the electorate, while for Rishi that's unlikely to be an option. 

Will Labour find that the ability to use social policy as a distraction to economic challenges will simply not be available to it in Government, the way both Blair and Cameron used hunting and gay marriage respectively. 

No party, no candidate has the right to be elected. Let the people decide...

Let's be honest.

There is a lack of substance, and basic honesty in politics in the UK. Perhaps this comes from the search for a tactical edge with elections looming. Perhaps because few have an underlying compass by which to articulate simply, directly and honestly the context in which action needs to happen to secure national renewal. Economic for sure, but more and more a sense of needing democratic renewal. 

Neither Sunak or Starmer impress, and unable to project leadership both seem slaves to events over which they have little control and on which their words have little impact. 

The Protocol remains unfinished business. The DUP is trying to say there is no border in the Irish Sea with most other politicians happy or accepting that as fact and sparing the blushes of the leader of the DUP by drawing attention that there is merely a fig leaf covering his hubris. And none of the parties in NI seem willing to acknowledge that the 'normal' fiscal irresponsibility can't continue. 

And meanwhile the mainstream media acts as if it completes with X to amplify unfounded opinion that seeks only affirmation from others in simply ignoring the herd of elephants in the public space. 

Electoral tsunami?

This is the year of elections around the world. While America and Europe may see populism gain, in the UK it seems there will be little change but the party label. It isn’t certain how any of this pans out. There will be little time for the outworking of one election to be adsorbed before the next.

2024 will be an a fascinating year, offering a number of late night viewings for the election obsessed.

Meanwhile the Northern Ireland Protocol remains and is due for full rigorous implementation by 2025. 

And, the Northern Ireland public sector isn't working.

 

Losing is the new Winning

The local Government elections in May and the more recent Westminster by-elections in England leave considerable challenges for political leaders in Northern Ireland and nationally, with wins and losses not being entirely clear cut. Everyone making the best of thread-bare endorsement. 

Meanwhile, into the public arena the political bogeyman that is Nigel Farage cuts through Orwellian double speak, gets straight to the point, and defenestrates institutional hubris like no other. While denying he has any future electoral ambitions, Farage remains the known unknown of British politics. 

The most positive thing that could be said of the underwhelming Windsor Framework impact on the Northern Ireland Protocol was "An Improvement", damning with faint praise, and even that isn't justified on close reading of the House of Lords Report.  

The unworkable Protocol is due to begin its rigorous implemented from early October in its slightly less unworkable 2.0 manifestation.  Will it be ready, steady, chaos? Another known unknown.

Despite the pressure on the DUP, at this point it is hard to see how any offer by Sunak would be in any way trusted.

Political parties have from now to the conference season to work out the platform that will define their pitch for the General Election due to be called sometime before the end of next year. Despite the polls, assume nothing.

The House of Sturgeon falls.

As the Coronation marks the continuity of the House of Windsor and the stability and sense of place for the UK, in Scotland the House of Sturgeon is in freefall. Remarkable history all around.

Meanwhile elections excite, or don't. Difficult to read too much into local election results because very often they reflect actual local issues that concern local people. That does not mean hours of political analysis on what it all might mean.

In Northern Ireland the South Belfast bubble will be seeking any reason on why there might be more pressure on the DUP to enable Stormont to get up and running, but little in the real world to suggest that is likely anytime soon.

Finally, is Chris Heaton-Harris the worst Secretary of State ever?

Greater expectations

Perhaps expecting Gary Lineker to have listened to there recent "The Rest is History" podcast, in which he is financially invested, is too much to expect. Her might have learned something, though perhaps it is all a bit above his head. 

The St Patrick's political festival is in full swing in the USA, to where our expenses-paid politicians (and the rest) seem to have decamped. 

It is from Washington DC that we learn of the DUP's current view on what it might think of the Sunak Framework, couched in such generalities and uncertainty demanding clarifications. This seems to make clear(-ish) that the Framework (a rehash of the NI Protocol that simply embeds the grace periods that would have lasted forever outside EU control - can't be having that) does not meet the DUP seven tests, even though those seven tests were themselves vague. 

With the seven tests not met, what then of the Panel? What exactly is it advising on? How does 'the public' make representation to the Panel when the general sense is that by composition and playbook this will likely deliver whatever the DUP leader requires to 'keep the show on the road', and when the public doesn't have the expert views the DUP has gathered to give guidance on to what extent the seven tests have been missed, and what options the DUP might consider going forward?

In so many aspects of public discourse, those that want to be lauded for offering their guidance and leadership really do need to step up a gear. Perhaps numbed to low expectations, they won't be disappointed with themselves. They shouldn't be too surprised if the public expects more. 

No bridges nor breakthroughs

While Harry burns his bridges and asks the family to jump into the void, the UK and EU seem to imagine that if the word 'breakthrough' is used no-one will look too much at the detail. In both instances the truth is out there, somewhere, just not as real as you are asked to imagine. 

It isn't clear who the audiences for the outbreak of truths is trying to convince of the veracity to their accounts. Perhaps it doesn't matter. Politics is increasingly conducted in the moment of the last Tweet rather than the reality of life for the people impacted. No wonder politicians struggle to cut through and populists that feed on concerns and fears gain from this - nationalism feeds of division and shifting the blame onto Westminster and offering milk and honey if only.... 

While a General Election may be two years away, local elections will bring back political uncertainty and pressures on main parties.

For Sunak and Starmer it will be a battle of energising their core vote, as few others might be inspired to be bothered to go to the voting booth.

In Northern Ireland we may get two for one; an Assembly election along with the necessary Local Government poll. There will be some who might hope that would boost the UUP which performs well at local government level, largely due to long-standing personal votes. But the European Election should have put paid to that idea - although well-liked, the UUP's Danny Kennedy crashed in the European poll. The DUP will not fear an election. Everyone else will see it as another chance to beat up on the DUP without offering anything much.

Plus ca change.